ASEAN Urbanisation
Understanding Nuances to Address Complexities
Where Does ASEAN Stand in This Urbanisation Wave?
ASEAN countries have experienced starkly differing trajectories of urbanisation, with some nations crossing the 50% urbanisation mark as early as the 1960s, while others are still some way behind. The anticipated addition of 70 million more urban dwellers by 2040, 60% of the region’s total, heralds a transformative era. This rapid growth presents a profoundly terrifying dual effect, offering both substantial opportunities and formidable challenges for ASEAN.
Urban and Rural Population Trends in ASEAN Countries
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Urbanisation Levels in Developing Economies
ASEAN’s urbanisation needs to be captured, understood, and judiciously analysed. To date, little attention has been given to ASEAN cities and their prospects.
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Brunei Darussalam
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The Gap We See
Urban Insights Series — Future of ASEAN
The story of urbanisation in ASEAN is one of contrasts and complexities, shaped by a multitude of factors — economic growth, social dynamism, and environmental. It is a tale of cities swelling with ambition, and it is vital to explore the intricate interplay of macro and micro trends, providing valuable insights for a sustainable and prosperous urban future in the ASEAN region. In this Urban Insights series, MORROW Intelligence (MI)’s research explores the complexities and opportunities within urban systems across ASEAN countries and its cities to provide a more bespoke and appropriate lens against the urbanisation backdrop.
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There is a chronic lack of data on the ASEAN region, due mainly to accuracy and accessibility issues. For this reason, ASEAN is heavily underrepresented in most global indices, which exclude cities like Bandar Seri Begawan, Vientiane, Phnom Penh, and Yangon.
| City Index | Total No. of Cities | Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei Darussalam | Phnom Penh, Cambodia | Jakarta, Indonesia | Vientiane, Lao PDR | Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia | Yanggon, Myanmar | Manila, Philippines | Singapore, Singapore | Bangkok, Thailand | Hanoi, Vietnam |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Innovation Cities Index | 500 | 457 | 246 | 163 | 315 | 5 | 145 | 403 | |||
| Happy City Index | 200 | 152 | 26 | 190 | |||||||
| Global Liveability Index | 173 | 139 | 94 | 129 | |||||||
| IMD Smart City Index | 141 | 102 | 89 | 115 | 7 | 100 | |||||
| Arcadis Sustainable Cities | 100 | 83 | 71 | 93 | 35 | 72 | 85 | ||||
| Sustainable Cities Index | 70 | 48 | |||||||||
| Urban Mobility Readiness Index | 65 | 49 | 42 | 60 | 6 | 45 | |||||
| Safe Cities Index | 60 | 46 | 32 | 60 | 51 | 3 | 43 | ||||
| Global Power City Index | 48 | 45 | 41 | 5 | 38 | ||||||
| Resilient Cities Index | 25 | 22 | 4 | ||||||||
| Quality of Living City Ranking | 241 | 112 | 201 | 148 | 180 | 86 | 226 | 135 | 29 | 124 | 167 |
Countries Appearances in indexes
Indexes included:
This perpetuates a skewed perspective of the way cities grow and interact in a particular region. By excluding ASEAN cities, the existing datasets fail to establish a baseline for comparison as urban development progresses in these areas. Furthermore, the cultural diversity across the region may also impact ‘liveability’ criteria. In ASEAN cities, vertical development is common due to limited land and high population density, whereas in other regions, suburban expansion and abundant open space often characterise people’s lives.
Compounding this issue is the prevalent misuse of interchanging country-level data with city-level data. For example, indicators measuring Greater Bangkok are often used to portray Thailand’s overall socio-economic situation. This approach risks distorting comparisons and misrepresenting impacts of urbanisation.
ASEAN is one of the most diverse regions in the world, where cities have vastly different socio-economic attributes and cultural characteristics. For instance, the nuclear family unit remains sacrosanct in Southeast Asia, providing the backbone for a sturdy workforce, a stable ideological foundation, and a rich heritage. This contrasts sharply with America, where the once prevalent image of the ‘white picket fence’ is fading, with a sharply decreasing fertility rate since the 60’s. Additionally, the income disparity among ASEAN countries is more than seven times that of EU member states. Understanding ASEAN requires tailored approaches that acknowledge these inherent differences, because each ASEAN city faces a distinct urban development pathway. Increased focus and dialogue are needed to ensure important nuances are accurately captured.
Deconstructing ASEAN’s Urbanisation
A region’s urban development can typically be divided into four stages: Urbanisation, Sub-urbanisation, De-urbanisation, and Re-urbanisation. The position of a city on this dynamic urbanisation curve is influenced by various push and pull factors, which affect the development, liveability, and sustainability of its urban areas. In ASEAN, such factors include population density, economic opportunities, infrastructure development, and environmental considerations. By analysing these drivers, we plot ASEAN’s economic cities on the urbanisation curve as follows, illustrating their unique development pathways.
Brunei – Bandar Seri Begawan- Population Density: 4,443 persons/km2
- Brunei’s first Master Plan enacted in 1986 has already highlighted the need for increased polycentric growth of several village areas peripheral to the Bandar Seri Begawan (BSB) city area.
- The city still poses many untapped opportunities for urban development and growth. Increasing foreign investment and opportunities in business and real estate indicate further growth potential.
Singapore – Singapore- Population Density: 8,358 persons/km2
- City Boundary: Singapore is a unique case due to its lack of hinterlands and rural areas. Similar to the governments of Brunei and Vietnam, Singapore aims to develop multiple centres within its townships to distribute its population more evenly.
Vietnam – Ho Chi Minh
- Population Density: 4,481 persons/km2
- Migration: The city continues to experience a high in-migration rate of 25.4% as of 2021.
- Employment: Informal employment rate at 48% as of 2021.
- City Boundary: Development remains concentrated in the city centre and nearby residential areas, but interest in the suburbs is increasing. The government is consciously working to simultaneously develop Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City to facilitate polycentric urbanisation.
- City Traffic: Negative consequences stemming from rapid urbanisation are emerging.
Lao PDR – Vientiane- Population Density: 209 persons/km2
- Development Potential: Presently, only 11% of the land is urban, yet 78% of its population resides in urban areas.
- City Boundary: Despite not having a particularly high level of urbanisation compared to other ASEAN economic cities, Vientiane is already showing signs of urban sprawl. This is evidenced by the lack of dense housing and the city's physical expansion, primarily along improved highways, areas cleared for private development, and special economic zones (SEZs).
- Migration: Between 2005 and 2015, nearly half of the rural-urban migrants in the Lao PDR relocated to Vientiane City.
Cambodia – Phnom Penh - Population Density: 3,361 persons/km2
- Housing: 1 in 5 people in Phnom Penh live in an informal settlement.
- City Traffic: Congestion on the streets of Phnom Penh – a result of the city’s growing population, rapid motorization, and over-strained infrastructure – costs the city an estimated US$6 million per month.
- City Boundary: Phnom Penh has already exhibited signs of urban sprawl, with developers actively pursuing large-scale real estate projects to establish satellite cities in the peri-urban areas.
- Infrastructure: The current eight peri-urban khans and outlying areas lack comprehensive drainage and flood protection systems, leaving them vulnerable to increasingly frequent flooding events.
Thailand – Bangkok - Population Density: 3,524 persons/km2
- City Traffic: In 2023, the average annual time lost in traffic during rush hours was 108 hours per 10 kilometres, with congestion levels reaching an average of 62%.
- Housing:Informal settlements have proliferated in the city's outskirts and marginalised areas, becoming a defining feature of Bangkok’s urban landscape.
- City Boundary: Bangkok is showing clear signs of urban sprawl into its five adjacent provinces, which have experienced rapid development in recent years.
Philippines – Manila - Population Density: 73,920 persons/km2
- City Traffic: In 2023, the average annual time lost in traffic during rush hours was 105 hours per 10 kilometres, with congestion levels reaching an average of 46%.
- Housing:One in four people currently reside in informal settlements in Metro Manila, lacking security of tenure.
- City Boundary: Peripheral areas, such as the nearby provinces of Rizal, Cavite, and Laguna, are increasingly undergoing development, indicating sub-urbanisation trends.
- Migration: Peripheral areas have been steadily displaying higher net migration rates.
- Work Arrangements:Remote work emerged as a significant trend during the pandemic, which could reduce the motivation for migration, particularly when weighed against the negative implications of rapid urbanisation.
Malaysia – Kuala Lumpur- Population Density: 8,235 persons/km2
- City Traffic: In 2023, the average annual time lost in traffic during rush hours was 81 hours per 10 kilometres, with congestion levels reaching an average of 43%.
- City Boundary: Urban sprawl is evident in the peripheral areas of Kuala Lumpur, particularly during periods of rapid urbanisation.
- Migration: Signs of counter-urbanisation in Kuala Lumpur are evident through negative net migration rates, with the city being the highest migrant-sending state in the country.
- Work Arrangements: Increasingly, Malaysians working in Kuala Lumpur (KL) prefer to purchase homes in the suburbs or neighbouring cities such as Klang or Selangor, commuting into the capital daily.
Indonesia – Jakarta- Population Density: 16,158 persons/km2
- Housing: Greater Jakarta alone is home to over five million slum dwellers, with 32% of slum houses in Jakarta offering less than 7 square meters of space per person.
- City Traffic: In 2023, the average annual time lost in traffic during rush hours was 117 hours per 10 kilometres, with congestion levels reaching an average of 53%.
- City Boundary: The rapid urban expansion that began in the mid-1990s has resulted in urban sprawl and the rise of sub-urbanisation, with gated communities emerging on the outskirts of DKI Jakarta.
- Migration: Net migration has been trending negative and steadily since the 1990s, particularly into surrounding areas such as West Java, indicating a trend of counter-urbanisation.
- Flagship Project: In a ploy to reduce congestion and combat rising sea waters, the government is shifting its capital city to Nusantara, Borneo by the year 2045.
What Lies Ahead for ASEAN Cities?
With its economy set to triple in size, ASEAN will witness the emergence of over 200 small secondary cities over the next 30 years, with Southeast Asia’s energy demand expected to jump 60% by 2040. This rapid transformation spans from rural communities to burgeoning megacities, highlighting interconnected effects often overlooked. ASEAN leaders must grasp these dynamics to better leverage emerging policy opportunities presented by the current urbanisation trajectory, shaping each city’s unique urban development. Notably, with over half of ASEAN’s population under 30, the region’s youth hold the potential to drive urban policies that directly impact their lives.
In this ASEAN Urban Insights series, MORROW Intelligence offers a deep dive into the intricate interplay of macro and micro trends across key urban system pillars. We analyse the causes and effects of urban challenges, assessing potential policy outcomes, whilst paying close attention to their nuanced impacts. We begin with the first urban system: Housing, exploring its critical role in the sustainable development of ASEAN cities.
